GoalSense Weekend: Tamworth’s remarkable run and the goal numbers to watch

The National League takes centre stage in the GoalSense numbers this weekend.

Three of the five highest-rated fixtures across the current 28-match GoalSense Weekend come from the division, while one team arrives carrying perhaps the most remarkable set of goal numbers anywhere in the window.

Elsewhere, there is a 15-match scoring streak, contrasting xG numbers in League One, a prolific Manchester City Women side and a Scottish team that has spent much of its recent run keeping opponents out.

Here are six stories behind this weekend's numbers.

Unless stated otherwise, recent records below cover each team's last 10 completed matches across all competitions and can extend back into last season. They describe what has happened, rather than what will happen next.

Tamworth just keep scoring — and conceding

Few teams in the GoalSense Weekend window bring a more striking combination of attacking and defensive trends than Tamworth.

They have scored in 11 consecutive matches.

They have also conceded in 13 consecutive matches.

Look specifically at their last 10 and the pattern becomes even clearer: Tamworth scored in all 10, conceded in all 10, both teams scored in all 10 and every one contained at least three goals.

Across those matches, they scored 21 and conceded 24.

Their away record adds another layer. Tamworth's last five away matches produced 24 goals in total, with eight scored and 16 conceded.

They travel to Aldershot on Saturday with GoalSense currently showing a Matchup Score of 89, alongside a BTTS potential of 91 and Over 2.5 potential of 88.

Those ratings aren't a promise that the sequence continues. But there probably isn't a better example this weekend of several different pieces of historical goal evidence all pointing in the same direction.

The National League dominates the weekend numbers

Tamworth aren't alone.

The four National League fixtures in the current GoalSense Weekend average a Matchup Score of 91.5, and three feature among the five highest Matchup Scores anywhere in the 28-match window.

The highest of them all is Boston v AFC Fylde, at 95.

Fylde have scored in each of their last 10 matches, finding the net 24 times. Both teams scored in nine of those 10 and nine also contained at least three goals.

Their scoring streak actually stretches to 11 consecutive matches.

Boston bring their own evidence. They have scored in nine of their last 10 and arrive on a run of six consecutive matches in which both teams scored.

That combination gives Boston v Fylde GoalSense potentials of 93 for BTTS, 96 for Over 1.5 and 98 for Over 2.5.

Again, those numbers describe the strength of the underlying GoalSense evidence. Football still gets the final say.

Harrogate haven't failed to score for 15 matches

Another National League side brings one of the weekend's longest active streaks.

Harrogate have scored in 15 consecutive matches.

They found the net in all of their last 10, scoring 21 goals, while both teams scored in nine and nine contained at least three goals.

At home the pattern has been particularly open recently. Harrogate scored and conceded in each of their last five home matches, with those games producing 21 goals.

Saturday's opponents Eastleigh have scored in nine of their own last 10.

That leaves Harrogate v Eastleigh with a GoalSense Matchup Score of 89, BTTS potential of 90 and Over 1.5 potential of 93.

Harrogate's 15-match run is impressive. The interesting question now is simply how long they can keep it going.

Manchester City Women bring 32 goals to Charlton

The strongest WSL story comes from Manchester City Women's recent scoring record.

City have scored 32 goals across their last 10 matches.

Eight of those 10 contained at least three goals.

Charlton's numbers add another layer. They conceded in nine of their last 10 and have allowed 12 goals across their last five home matches.. Charlton Women conceded in nine of their last 10 and have allowed 12 goals across their last five home matches.

That contrast contributes to Charlton Women v Manchester City Women carrying a GoalSense Matchup Score of 91 and Over 2.5 potential of 95.

It's a useful example of why the number at the top of a matchup only tells part of the story. Looking underneath it shows where the evidence is actually coming from.

Stockport and Peterborough: when goals and xG separate

Only eight of this weekend's 28 fixtures have current-season xG data available for both teams, so it needs to be treated separately from the wider GoalSense ratings.

But Stockport v Peterborough provides an interesting example.

Stockport have scored 16 goals from 13.01 xG this season.

Peterborough, meanwhile, have scored just four from 10.78 xG.

In simple terms, Stockport's actual goal return has run ahead of the quality of chances represented by their xG, while Peterborough's has run substantially behind.

Peterborough's recent away results add further context: they have scored three and conceded 13 across their last five away matches.

The fixture carries a GoalSense Matchup Score of 89 and Over 2.5 potential of 92.

The xG figures are shown here as a separate piece of evidence; xG does not feed into the GoalSense Rating.

Whether those finishing gaps persist is another question entirely.

And then there's Stenhousemuir...

Not everything in the weekend data points towards goals.

Stenhousemuir provide one of the clearest counter-examples.

They have kept seven clean sheets in their last 10 matches, conceding just four goals across that period.

Only one of those 10 matches contained three or more goals.

That makes Friday night's trip to Ayr rather different from the National League fixtures sitting at the top of the GoalSense numbers.

Ayr v Stenhousemuir has a Matchup Score of 72 and Over 2.5 potential of 72 — considerably below the weekend's leading fixtures.

Sometimes the interesting number isn't the one suggesting goals.

It's the one showing just how consistently a team has been preventing them.

The weekend at a glance

There are 28 fixtures across seven competitions in the current GoalSense Weekend.

The National League provides the strongest cluster of GoalSense Matchup Scores, but some of the most interesting individual streaks are spread much further.

Folkestone have scored in 17 consecutive matches.

Harrogate's scoring run stands at 15.

Tamworth and London City Lionesses have both conceded in 13 consecutive matches, while Braintree's conceding run stands at 11.

Some of those streaks will survive the weekend. Others won't.

That's precisely why the numbers are worth following.

GoalSense isn't about pretending historical data knows the next result. It's about showing what has been happening, where the strongest patterns are and what evidence sits behind the headline numbers.

Explore the full weekend on GoalSense Weekend, or open individual matchups to see the data behind each fixture.

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