The Weekend Preview: PSV flying, Frankfurt trading goals and Hamilton still to concede

The Weekend Preview: PSV flying, Frankfurt trading goals and Hamilton yet to concede

From PSV averaging more than five goals per game to Hamilton Academical still waiting to concede, we dig into the GoalSense data behind this weekend's standout fixtures.

Friday night's football is done, but there are still 138 fixtures across 20 competitions in the GoalSense weekend window.

And there are some extraordinary numbers among them.

We've gone through the GoalSense Ratings, recent form, scoring and conceding runs and — where coverage allows — the underlying xG data to find the stories that stand out before the rest of the weekend gets underway.

Can anyone slow PSV down?

PSV's recent numbers are ridiculous.

Their last 10 league matches have produced 51 goals — an average of 5.1 per game. PSV have scored 39 of them themselves.

Both teams have scored in all 10. Every match has gone over 2.5 goals. And PSV have scored at least twice in every one.

Their scoring run now stretches to 36 consecutive league matches, while they've seen at least two goals in 27 straight.

Next up is a trip to FC Twente on Sunday.

And that's where it gets interesting.

Twente come into it with two consecutive clean sheets and have conceded only five times so far this season.

There is also a little context underneath PSV's spectacular finishing. Across the five matches for which GoalSense currently holds xG, they've scored 18 goals from 13.78 xG.

The goals are very real. Whether they can continue arriving at quite this rate is another question.

GoalSense Goal Rating: 97

Frankfurt just can't stop trading goals

Eintracht Frankfurt remain one of the most extraordinary teams in the GoalSense data.

Both teams have scored in each of their last 10 matches, while their current BTTS run actually stretches to 11.

Frankfurt have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.

They've also conceded in 11 consecutive league matches.

Their last ten have averaged 4.0 goals per game, with nine producing at least three goals.

On Saturday they face Freiburg, whose own last ten have averaged 3.6 goals.

There is evidence pointing the other way: Freiburg arrive with two consecutive clean sheets, while Frankfurt's available xG sample is still extremely small.

But in terms of sustained recent goal activity, there aren't many records this weekend quite like Frankfurt's.

GoalSense Goal Rating: 94

Six games. Six Hamilton clean sheets.

Not every remarkable GoalSense trend involves goals flying in.

Hamilton Academical have played six league matches this season and haven't conceded a goal.

They've scored 12, kept six clean sheets from six and extended a defensive run that is comfortably the longest among the teams still to play this weekend.

Across their last ten league matches, Hamilton have kept eight clean sheets and conceded an average of just 0.3 goals per game.

Saturday's opponents Queen of the South could hardly arrive with a more contrasting record.

They've conceded 20 goals in seven league matches this season and have now conceded in 10 consecutive games.

Their last six away matches have averaged 4.33 goals, with Queen of the South conceding three per game themselves.

An immaculate defence against a side that can't stop conceding.

Something has to give.

The highest-rated fixture left this weekend

If you're looking purely at the GoalSense numbers, NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles sits right at the top.

It carries a GoalSense Goal Rating of 98, a BTTS Rating of 96 and ratings of 98 and 99 for Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 respectively.

And there is plenty behind those numbers.

NEC have now seen at least two goals in 29 consecutive league matches, the longest active run of its kind in the weekend data.

Both teams have scored in nine of their last ten.

Go Ahead Eagles have meanwhile seen both teams score in all six league matches this season, which have averaged 4.67 goals.

They've scored in nine consecutive games.

They've also conceded in nine consecutive games.

Two teams carrying remarkably persistent goal trends meet on Sunday afternoon.

Tottenham and Villa are having the opposite problem

Then there's Tottenham v Aston Villa.

Between them, the two sides have scored one goal across eight team-matches in the league this season.

Spurs haven't scored at all.

Four matches. Four blanks.

Villa have managed one goal from their four and failed to score three times.

There is an important wrinkle in the underlying data. Across three matches with xG coverage, Spurs generated 3.04 xG without scoring, while Villa generated 2.07 xG without finding the net.

So this isn't quite a story of two teams creating absolutely nothing.

But the ball still has to go in.

GoalSense currently gives the fixture a Goal Rating of 73, the lowest among the remaining Premier League matches.

Twenty-eight games without a clean sheet

PSV aren't responsible for the longest streak in the Netherlands this weekend.

That belongs to Fortuna Sittard — for a very different reason.

Fortuna have conceded in 28 consecutive league matches.

Their last ten have contained 39 goals, with both teams scoring in eight of them. They haven't kept a clean sheet in that period.

And their available xG numbers make the record particularly interesting.

Across five covered matches, Fortuna have scored 11 times from just 4.42 xG, while conceding nine from 12.26 xGA.

In other words, they've recently scored considerably more — and conceded fewer — than the chances at either end would suggest.

They face Willem II on Saturday evening, with GoalSense giving the fixture a Goal Rating of 94 and BTTS Rating of 93.

At the other end of the GoalSense table...

For every wild scoring run, there are teams doing their best to keep the numbers down.

Dunfermline Athletic have now gone nine consecutive league matches under 2.5 goals. Only one of their last ten has contained three or more, and they've kept five clean sheets during that period.

Partick Thistle aren't far behind.

They've gone eight consecutive matches under 2.5, with none of their six league games this season reaching three goals.

And Tottenham aren't alone in struggling to find the net. Stamford and Coventry City also enter the weekend having failed to score in four consecutive league matches.

Sometimes the strongest goal trend is the absence of them.

Three streaks to finish

If you like a number that makes you check it twice, here are three.

Sporting CP have scored in 59 consecutive league matches.

York City have scored in 44 consecutive league matches.

And PSV have scored in 36.

At the other end, Fortuna's 28-match conceding run leads the weekend, followed by Preston at 22 and Villarreal at 20.

Those are some of the numbers before the weekend really gets going.

By Monday night, we'll know which streaks survived — and which ones football decided to end.

We Explain Goal Data.